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Title

Present-day and future Amazonian precipitation in global climate models: CMIP5 versus CMIP3

Publication Year

2013

Author(s)
  • Joetzjer, E.
  • Douville, H.
  • Delire, C.
  • Ciais, P.
Source
CLIMATE DYNAMICS Volume: 41 Issue: 11-12 Pages: 2921-2936 Published: 2013
ISSN
0930-7575 eISSN: 1432-0894
Abstract

The present study aims at evaluating and comparing precipitation over the Amazon in two sets of historical and future climate simulations based on phase 3 (CMIP3) and 5 (CMIP5) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Thirteen models have been selected in order to discuss (1) potential improvements in the simulation of present-day climate and (2) the potential reduction in the uncertainties of the model response to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. While several features of present-day precipitation-including annual cycle, spatial distribution and co variability with tropical sea surface temperature (SST)-have been improved, strong uncertainties remain in the climate projections. A closer comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP3 highlights a weaker consensus on increased precipitation during the wet season, but a stronger consensus on a drying and lengthening of the dry season. The latter response is related to a northward shift of the boreal summer intertropical convergence zone in CMIP5, in line with a more asymmetric warming between the northern and southern hemispheres. The large uncertainties that persist in the rainfall response arise from contrasted anomalies in both moisture convergence and evapotranspiration. They might be related to the diverse response of tropical SST and ENSO (El Nio Southern Oscillation) variability, as well as to spurious behaviours among the models that show the most extreme response. Model improvements of present-day climate do not necessarily translate into more reliable projections and further efforts are needed for constraining the pattern of the SST response and the soil moisture feedback in global climate scenarios.

Author Keyword(s)
  • CMIP
  • Amazonian precipitation
  • Model evaluation
  • Climate change
  • Uncertainties
KeyWord(s) Plus
  • SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE
  • RAIN-FOREST
  • INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY
  • NINO EVENTS
  • DROUGHT
  • CYCLE
  • DIEBACK
  • PATTERNS
  • IMPACT
  • BASIN
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Geosciences
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Adress(es)

[Joetzjer, E.; Douville, H.; Delire, C.] CNRM GAME, F-31057 Toulouse, France; [Ciais, P.] Lab Climate Sci & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France

Reprint Adress

Joetzjer, E (reprint author), CNRM GAME, 42 Ave G Coriolis, F-31057 Toulouse, France.

Country(ies)
  • France
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (GAME), UMR3589
  • Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement (LSCE), UMR8212
Accession Number
WOS:000327080400008
uid:/Z8V6RGN5
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