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Title

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2

Publication Year

2014

Author(s)
  • Friend, Andrew D.
  • Lucht, Wolfgang
  • Rademacher, Tim T.
  • Keribin, Rozenn
  • Betts, Richard
  • Cadule, Patricia
  • Ciais, Philippe
  • Clark, Douglas B.
  • Dankers, Rutger
  • Falloon, Pete D.
  • Ito, Akihiko
  • Kahana, Ron
  • Kleidon, Axel
  • Lomas, Mark R.
  • Nishina, Kazuya
  • Ostberg, Sebastian
  • Pavlick, Ryan
  • Peylin, Philippe
  • Schaphoff, Sibyll
  • Vuichard, Nicolas
  • Warszawski, Lila
  • Wiltshire, Andy
  • Woodward, F. Ian
Source
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Volume: 111 Issue: 9 Pages: 3280-3285 Published: 2014
ISSN
0027-8424
Abstract

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 C of global land surface warming (510-758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52-477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 degrees C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway x general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.

Author Keyword(s)
  • DGVM
  • GVM
  • turnover
  • NPP
  • ISI-MIP
KeyWord(s) Plus
  • PLANT GEOGRAPHY
  • BIAS CORRECTION
  • MODELS
  • DYNAMICS
  • FORESTS
  • NITROGEN
  • BIOMASS
  • SCALE
  • CYCLE
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Multidisciplinary
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Multidisciplinary Sciences
Adress(es)

[Friend, Andrew D.; Rademacher, Tim T.; Keribin, Rozenn] Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England; [Lucht, Wolfgang; Ostberg, Sebastian; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Warszawski, Lila] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany; [Lucht, Wolfgang] Humboldt Univ, Dept Geog, D-10099 Berlin, Germany; [Betts, Richard; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D.; Kahana, Ron; Wiltshire, Andy] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England; [Cadule, Patricia] Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, F-75252 Paris, France; [Ciais, Philippe; Vuichard, Nicolas] Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France; [Clark, Douglas B.] Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England; [Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan; [Kleidon, Axel; Pavlick, Ryan] Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, D-07745 Jena, Germany; [Lomas, Mark R.; Woodward, F. Ian] Univ Sheffield, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England

Reprint Adress

Friend, AD (reprint author), Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Downing Pl, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England.

Country(ies)
  • France
  • Germany
  • Japan
  • United Kingdom
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR636
  • Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement (LSCE), UMR8212
Accession Number
WOS:000332560300031
uid:/WC5D94LD
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