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Title

Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe

Publication Year

2015

Author(s)
  • Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda
  • Vautard, Robert
  • Liu, Li
  • Solmon, Fabien
  • Viovy, Nicolas
  • Khvorostyanov, Dmitry
  • Essl, Franz
  • Chuine, Isabelle
  • Colette, Augustin
  • Semenov, Mikhail A.
  • Schaffhauser, Alice
  • Storkey, Jonathan
  • Thibaudon, Michel
  • Epstein, Michelle M.
Source
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Volume: 5 Issue: 8 Pages: 766-U186 Published: 2015
ISSN
1758-678X eISSN: 1758-6798
Abstract

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) is an invasive alien species in Europe producing pollen that causes severe allergic disease in susceptible individuals(1). Ragweed plants could further invade European land with climate and land-use changes(2,3). However, airborne pollen evolution depends not only on plant invasion, but also on pollen production, release and atmospheric dispersion changes. To predict the effect of climate and land-use changes on airborne pollen concentrations, we used two comprehensive modelling frameworks accounting for all these factors under high-end and moderate climate and land-use change scenarios. We estimate that by 2050 airborne ragweed pollen concentrations will be about 4 times higher than they are now, with a range of uncertainty from 2 to 12 largely depending on the seed dispersal rate assumptions. About a third of the airborne pollen increase is due to on-going seed dispersal, irrespective of climate change. The remaining two-thirds are related to climate and land-use changes that will extend ragweed habitat suitability in northern and eastern Europe and increase pollen production in established ragweed areas owing to increasing CO2. Therefore, climate change and ragweed seed dispersal in current and future suitable areas will increase airborne pollen concentrations, which may consequently heighten the incidence and prevalence of ragweed allergy.

Author Keyword(s)

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KeyWord(s) Plus
  • AMBROSIA-ARTEMISIIFOLIA
  • COMMON RAGWEED
  • SPREAD
  • MODEL
  • CO2
  • HABITAT
  • FRANCE
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Environment/Ecology
  • Geosciences
  • Social Sciences
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Environmental Sciences
  • Environmental Studies
  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Adress(es)

[Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Vautard, Robert; Viovy, Nicolas; Schaffhauser, Alice] CEA CNRS UVSQ, IPSL, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, UMR8212, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France; [Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Colette, Augustin] Inst Natl Environm Ind & Risques, F-60550 Verneuil En Halatte, France; [Liu, Li; Solmon, Fabien] Abdus Salaam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Earth Syst Phys Sect, I-34100 Trieste, Italy; [Khvorostyanov, Dmitry] CNRS, IPSL, Lab Meteorol Dynam, UMR8539, F-91120 Palaiseau, France; [Essl, Franz] Univ Vienna, Fac Ctr Biodivers, Div Conservat Biol Vegetat & Landscape Ecol, A-1030 Vienna, Austria; [Chuine, Isabelle] Univ Montpellier, CNRS, CEFE UMR 5175, F-34293 Montpellier 05, France; [Semenov, Mikhail A.; Storkey, Jonathan] Rothamsted Res, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, Herts, England; [Thibaudon, Michel] Reseau Natl Surveillance Aerobiol, F-69690 Brussieu, France; [Epstein, Michelle M.] Med Univ Vienna, Expt Allergy, Div Immunol Allergy & Infect Dis, Dept Dermatol, A-1090 Vienna, Austria

Reprint Adress

Hamaoui-Laguel, L (reprint author), CEA CNRS UVSQ, IPSL, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, UMR8212, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France.

Country(ies)
  • Austria
  • France
  • Italy
  • United Kingdom
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Chimie bio-inspirée et innovations écologiques, FRE3673
  • Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR636
  • Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique (LMD), UMR8539
  • Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement (LSCE), UMR8212
Accession Number
WOS:000358484400021
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