We investigate the effect of climate change on crop productivity in Africa using satellite derived data on land use and net primary productivity (NPP) at a small river basin scale, distinguishing between the impact of local and upper-catchment weather. Regression results show that both of these are determining factors of local cropland productivity. These estimates are then combined with climate change predictions obtained from two general circulation models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) assumptions to evaluate the impact of climate change by 2100. For some scenarios significant decreases are predicted over the northern and southern parts of Africa.
[Blanc, Elodie] MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; [Strobl, Eric] Ecole Polytech, Dept Econ, F-91128 Palaiseau, France; [Strobl, Eric] IPAG Res Lab, F-91128 Palaiseau, France