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Global Priority Conservation Areas in the Face of 21st Century Climate Change

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  • Li, Junsheng
  • Lin, Xin
  • Chen, Anping
  • Peterson, Townsend
  • Ma, Keping
  • Bertzky, Monika
  • Ciais, Philippe
  • Kapos, Valerie
  • Peng, Changhui
  • Poulter, Benjamin
PLOS ONE Volume: 8 Issue: 1 Article Number: e54839 Published: 2013

In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the Global 200 ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth's ecosystems - over the 21 st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991-2010 and 2081-2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability) to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.

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ESI Discipline(s)
  • Multidisciplinary
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Multidisciplinary Sciences

[Li, Junsheng; Lin, Xin] Chinese Res Inst Environm Sci, State Key Lab Environm Criteria & Risk Assessment, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Lin, Xin] Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Water Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; [Chen, Anping] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; [Peterson, Townsend] Univ Kansas, Biodivers Inst, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA; [Ma, Keping] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Bertzky, Monika; Kapos, Valerie] United Nations Environm Programme World Conservat, Cambridge, England; [Ciais, Philippe; Poulter, Benjamin] CNRS, LSCE, UM, Commissariat Energie Atom & Energies Alternat CE, Gif Sur Yvette, France; [Ciais, Philippe; Poulter, Benjamin] Univ Versailles St Quentin Yvelines UVSQ, Gif Sur Yvette, France; [Kapos, Valerie] Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge, England; [Peng, Changhui] Univ Quebec, Dept Biol Sci, Inst Environm Sci, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8, Canada; [Peng, Changhui] NW A&F Univ, Coll Forestry, Lab Ecol Forecasting & Global Change, Yangling, Shaanxi, Peoples R China

Reprint Adress

Li, JS (reprint author), Chinese Res Inst Environm Sci, State Key Lab Environm Criteria & Risk Assessment, Beijing, Peoples R China.

  • Canada
  • France
  • People's Republic of China
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement (LSCE), UMR8212
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