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Title

Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction

Publication Year

2013

Author(s)
  • Doblas-Reyes, F. J.
  • Andreu-Burillo, I.
  • Chikamoto, Y.
  • Garcia-Serrano, J.
  • Guemas, V.
  • Kimoto, M.
  • Mochizuki, T.
  • Rodrigues, L. R. L.
  • van Oldenborgh, G. J.
Source
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS Volume: 4 Article Number: 1715 Published: 2013
ISSN
2041-1723
Abstract

Climate models are seen by many to be unverifiable. However, near-term climate predictions up to 10 years into the future carried out recently with these models can be rigorously verified against observations. Near-term climate prediction is a new information tool for the climate adaptation and service communities, which often make decisions on near-term time scales, and for which the most basic information is unfortunately very scarce. The Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project set of co-ordinated climate-model experiments includes a set of near-term predictions in which several modelling groups participated and whose forecast quality we illustrate here. We show that climate forecast systems have skill in predicting the Earth's temperature at regional scales over the past 50 years and illustrate the trustworthiness of their predictions. Most of the skill can be attributed to changes in atmospheric composition, but also partly to the initialization of the predictions.

Author Keyword(s)

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KeyWord(s) Plus
  • DECADAL PREDICTION
  • VARIABILITY
  • MODEL
  • TEMPERATURE
  • SIMULATION
  • PREDICTABILITY
  • UNCERTAINTY
  • SENSITIVITY
  • ENSEMBLES
  • FORECASTS
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Multidisciplinary
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Multidisciplinary Sciences
Adress(es)

[Doblas-Reyes, F. J.] Inst Catalana Recerca & Estudis Avancats, Barcelona 08010, Spain; [Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Andreu-Burillo, I.; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Guemas, V.; Rodrigues, L. R. L.] Inst Catala Ciencies Clima IC3, Barcelona 08005, Spain; [Chikamoto, Y.] Univ Hawaii, Int Pacific Res Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA; [Garcia-Serrano, J.; Kimoto, M.] Univ Tokyo, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst, Kashiwa, Chiba 2778568, Japan; [Guemas, V.] Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, Grp Etude Atmosphere Meteorol CNRM GAME, UMR 3589, F-31057 Toulouse, France; [Mochizuki, T.] Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol JAMSTEC, Kanazawa Ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan; [van Oldenborgh, G. J.] Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorol Inst, NL-3730 AE De Bilt, Netherlands

Reprint Adress

Doblas-Reyes, FJ (reprint author), Inst Catalana Recerca & Estudis Avancats, Passeig Lluis Co 23, Barcelona 08010, Spain.

Country(ies)
  • France
  • Japan
  • Netherlands
  • Spain
  • United States
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (GAME), UMR3589
Accession Number
WOS:000318872100072
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