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Title

The fate of European breeding birds under climate, land-use and dispersal scenarios

Publication Year

2012

Author(s)
  • Barbet-Massin, Morgane
  • Thuiller, Wilfried
  • Jiguet, Frederic
Source
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY Volume: 18 Issue: 3 Pages: 881-890 Published: 2012
ISSN
1354-1013
Abstract

Many species have already shifted their distributions in response to recent climate change. Here, we aimed at predicting the future breeding distributions of European birds under climate, land-use, and dispersal scenarios. We predicted current and future distributions of 409 species within an ensemble forecast framework using seven species distribution models (SDMs), five climate scenarios and three emission and land-use scenarios. We then compared results from SDMs using climate-only variables, habitat-only variables or both climate and habitat variables. In order to account for a species dispersal abilities, we used natal dispersal estimates and developed a probabilistic method that produced a dispersal scenario intermediate between the null and full dispersal scenarios generally considered in such studies. We then compared results from all scenarios in terms of future predicted range changes, range shifts, and variations in species richness. Modeling accuracy was better with climate-only variables than with habitat-only variables, and better with both climate and habitat variables. Habitat models predicted smaller range shifts and smaller variations in range size and species richness than climate models. Using both climate and habitat variables, it was predicted that the range of 71% of the species would decrease by 2050, with a 335km median shift. Predicted variations in species richness showed large decreases in the southern regions of Europe, as well as increases, mainly in Scandinavia and northern Russia. The partial dispersal scenario was significantly different from the full dispersal scenario for 25% of the species, resulting in the local reduction of the future predicted species richness of up to 10%. We concluded that the breeding range of most European birds will decrease in spite of dispersal abilities close to a full dispersal hypothesis, and that given the contrasted predictions obtained when modeling climate change only and land-use change only, both scenarios must be taken into consideration.

Author Keyword(s)
  • climate change
  • European birds
  • land-use scenario
  • natal dispersal
  • shifts
  • species distribution models
  • species richness
KeyWord(s) Plus
  • SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS
  • POTENTIAL IMPACTS
  • GLOBAL CHANGE
  • HABITAT FRAGMENTATION
  • MIGRATION RATES
  • POLEWARD SHIFTS
  • EXTINCTION RISK
  • RANGE SHIFTS
  • MODELS
  • DIVERSITY
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Environment/Ecology
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Biodiversity Conservation
  • Ecology
  • Environmental Sciences
Adress(es)

[Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Jiguet, Frederic] Ctr Rech Biol Populat Oiseaux, Museum Natl Hist Nat, MNHN CNRS UPMC UMR 7204, F-75005 Paris, France; [Thuiller, Wilfried] Univ Grenoble 1, Lab Ecol Alpine, CNRS, UMR 5553, F-38041 Grenoble, France

Reprint Adress

Barbet-Massin, M (reprint author), Ctr Rech Biol Populat Oiseaux, Museum Natl Hist Nat, MNHN CNRS UPMC UMR 7204, CP 51,55 Rue Buffon, F-75005 Paris, France.

Country(ies)
  • France
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Centre des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO), UMR7204
  • Laboratoire d'écologie alpine (LECA), UMR5553
Accession Number
WOS:000300671600007
uid:/BJ5M6K6C
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