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Title

Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations to improve climate projections

Publication Year

2015

Author(s)
  • Harrison, S. P.
  • Bartlein, P. J.
  • Izumi, K.
  • Li, G.
  • Annan, J.
  • Hargreaves, J.
  • Braconnot, P.
  • Kageyama, M.
Source
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Volume: 5 Issue: 8 Pages: 735-743 Published: 2015
ISSN
1758-678X eISSN: 1758-6798
Abstract

Structural differences among models account for much of the uncertainty in projected climate changes, at least until the mid-twenty-first century. Recent observations encompass too limited a range of climate variability to provide a robust test of the ability to simulate climate changes. Past climate changes provide a unique opportunity for out-of-sample evaluation of model performance. Palaeo-evaluation has shown that the large-scale changes seen in twenty-first-century projections, including enhanced land-sea temperature contrast, latitudinal amplification, changes in temperature seasonality and scaling of precipitation with temperature, are likely to be realistic. Although models generally simulate changes in large-scale circulation sufficiently well to shift regional climates in the right direction, they often do not predict the correct magnitude of these changes. Differences in performance are only weakly related to modern-day biases or climate sensitivity, and more sophisticated models are not better at simulating climate changes. Although models correctly capture the broad patterns of climate change, improvements are required to produce reliable regional projections.

Author Keyword(s)

Error: empty list

KeyWord(s) Plus
  • LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM
  • MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT
  • SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE
  • NORTHERN AFRICA
  • MIDHOLOCENE CLIMATE
  • SYNERGISTIC FEEDBACKS
  • HOLOCENE CLIMATE
  • PMIP SIMULATIONS
  • WATER-BALANCE
  • ICE-AGE
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Environment/Ecology
  • Geosciences
  • Social Sciences
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Environmental Sciences
  • Environmental Studies
  • Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Adress(es)

[Harrison, S. P.] Univ Reading, Sch Archaeol Geog & Environm Sci SAGES, Ctr Climate Change, Reading RG6 6AH, Berks, England; [Harrison, S. P.; Li, G.] Macquarie Univ, Dept Biol Sci, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia; [Bartlein, P. J.; Izumi, K.] Univ Oregon, Dept Geog, Eugene, OR 97403 USA; [Izumi, K.; Braconnot, P.; Kageyama, M.] UVSQ, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Unite Mixte Rech,CEA,CNRS,Orme Merisiers, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France; [Izumi, K.] UPMC, CNRS, Lab Meteorol Dynam LMD IPSL, F-75252 Paris 05, France; [Annan, J.; Hargreaves, J.] BlueSkiesRes Org Uk, Settle BD24 9HE, England

Reprint Adress

Harrison, SP (reprint author), Univ Reading, Sch Archaeol Geog & Environm Sci SAGES, Ctr Climate Change, Reading RG6 6AH, Berks, England.

Country(ies)
  • Australia
  • France
  • United Kingdom
  • United States
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR636
  • Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique (LMD), UMR8539
  • Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement (LSCE), UMR8212
Accession Number
WOS:000358484400015
uid:/93297D40
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