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Title

Modelling seed germination in forest tree species through survival analysis. The Pinus pinea L. case study

Publication Year

2013

Author(s)
  • Manso, Ruben
  • Fortin, Mathieu
  • Calama, Rafael
  • Pardos, Marta
Source
FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT Volume: 289 Pages: 515-524 Published: 2013
ISSN
0378-1127
Abstract

The direct application of existing models for seed germination may often be inadequate in the context of ecology and forestry germination experiments. This is because basic model assumptions are violated and variables available to forest managers are rarely used. In this paper, we present a method which addresses the aforementioned shortcomings. The approach is illustrated through a case study of Pinus pinea L Our findings will also shed light on the role of germination in the general failure of natural regeneration in managed forests of this species. The presented technique consists of a mixed regression model based on survival analysis. Climate and stand covariates were tested. Data for fitting the model were gathered from a 5-year germination experiment in a mature, managed P. pinea stand in the Northern Plateau of Spain in which two different stand densities can be found. The model predictions proved to be unbiased and highly accurate when compared with the training data. Germination in P. pinea was controlled through thermal variables at stand level. At microsite level, low densities negatively affected the probability of germination. A time-lag in the response was also detected. Overall, the proposed technique provides a reliable alternative to germination modelling in ecology/forestry studies by using accessible/suitable variables. The P. pinea case study highlights the importance of producing unbiased predictions. In this species, the occurrence and timing of germination suggest a very different regeneration strategy from that understood by forest managers until now, which may explain the high failure rate of natural regeneration in managed stands. In addition, these findings provide valuable information for the management of P. pinea under climate-change conditions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Author Keyword(s)
  • Survival analysis
  • Hazard function
  • Random effects
  • Natural regeneration
  • Climate change
  • Dormancy
KeyWord(s) Plus
  • NORTHERN PLATEAU SPAIN
  • CONE PRODUCTION
  • RECRUITMENT
  • STANDS
  • SEEDLINGS
  • CONSEQUENCES
  • TEMPERATURES
  • VARIABILITY
  • DISPERSAL
  • EMERGENCE
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Plant & Animal Science
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Forestry
Adress(es)

[Manso, Ruben; Calama, Rafael; Pardos, Marta] Forest Res Ctr, Dept Selvicultura & Gest Sistemas Forestales INIA, Madrid 28040, Spain; [Fortin, Mathieu] AgroParisTech, Lab Etud Ressources Foret Bois, LERFoB UMR 1092, F-54042 Nancy, France

Reprint Adress

Manso, R (reprint author), Forest Res Ctr, Dept Selvicultura & Gest Sistemas Forestales INIA, Ctra La Coruna,Km 7-5, Madrid 28040, Spain.

Country(ies)
  • France
  • Spain
CNRS - Adress(es)

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Accession Number
WOS:000315659500056
uid:/8FVJDHBS
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