Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change.
- comparative analyses
- Grinnellian niche
- Eltonian niche
- climatic niche
- PHYLOGENETIC SIGNAL
- EXTINCTION RISK
- CONSERVATION BIOLOGY
- PHENOTYPIC EVOLUTION
- R PACKAGE
[Lavergne, Sebastien; Thuiller, Wilfried] Univ Grenoble 1, CNRS, UMR 5553, Lab Ecol Alpine, F-38041 Grenoble 9, France; [Evans, Margaret E. K.] Museum Natl Hist Nat, Dept Origine Struct & Evolut Biodiversite, UMR 7205, F-75005 Paris, France; [Burfield, Ian J.] BirdLife Int, Wellbrook Court, Cambridge CB3 0NA, England; [Jiguet, Frederic] Museum Natl Hist Nat, Dept Ecol & Gest Biodiversite, UMR 7204, F-75005 Paris, France
Lavergne, S (reprint author), Univ Grenoble 1, CNRS, UMR 5553, Lab Ecol Alpine, F-38041 Grenoble 9, France.
- Centre des Sciences de la Conservation (CESCO), UMR7204
- Institut de Systématique, Evolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB), UMR7205
- Laboratoire d'écologie alpine (LECA), UMR5553