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Title

Oxygen and indicators of stress for marine life in multi-model global warming projections

Publication Year

2013

Author(s)
  • Cocco, V.
  • Joos, F.
  • Steinacher, M.
  • Froelicher, T. L.
  • Bopp, L.
  • Dunne, J.
  • Gehlen, M.
  • Heinze, C.
  • Orr, J.
  • Oschlies, A.
  • Schneider, B.
  • Segschneider, J.
  • Tjiputra, J.
Source
BIOGEOSCIENCES Volume: 10 Issue: 3 Pages: 1849-1868 Published: 2013
ISSN
1726-4170 eISSN: 1726-4189
Abstract

Decadal-to-century scale trends for a range of marine environmental variables in the upper mesopelagic layer (UML, 100-600 m) are investigated using results from seven Earth System Models forced by a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. The models as a class represent the observation-based distribution of oxygen (O-2) and carbon dioxide (CO2), albeit major mismatches between observation-based and simulated values remain for individual models. By year 2100 all models project an increase in SST between 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C, and a decrease in the pH and in the saturation state of water with respect to calcium carbonate minerals in the UML. A decrease in the total ocean inventory of dissolved oxygen by 2% to 4% is projected by the range of models. Projected O-2 changes in the UML show a complex pattern with both increasing and decreasing trends reflecting the subtle balance of different competing factors such as circulation, production, remineralization, and temperature changes. Projected changes in the total volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters remain relatively small in all models. A widespread increase of CO2 in the UML is projected. The median of the CO2 distribution between 100 and 600m shifts from 0.1-0.2 mol m(-3) in year 1990 to 0.2-0.4 mol m(-3) in year 2100, primarily as a result of the invasion of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere. The co-occurrence of changes in a range of environmental variables indicates the need to further investigate their synergistic impacts on marine ecosystems and Earth System feedbacks.

Author Keyword(s)

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KeyWord(s) Plus
  • CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL
  • GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL
  • ISOPYCNIC COORDINATE MODEL
  • SUBTROPICAL NORTH PACIFIC
  • CARBON-CYCLE FEEDBACKS
  • OCEAN ACIDIFICATION
  • ATMOSPHERE MODEL
  • TROPICAL OCEANS
  • REDFIELD RATIOS
  • CO2
ESI Discipline(s)
  • Environment/Ecology
  • Geosciences
Web of Science Category(ies)
  • Ecology
  • Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Adress(es)

[Cocco, V.; Joos, F.; Steinacher, M.] Univ Bern, Inst Phys, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; [Cocco, V.; Joos, F.; Steinacher, M.] Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; [Froelicher, T. L.] Princeton Univ, Atmospher & Ocean Sci Program, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA; [Bopp, L.; Gehlen, M.; Orr, J.] LSCE, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France; [Dunne, J.] NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA; [Heinze, C.; Tjiputra, J.] Univ Bergen, Inst Geophys, N-5007 Bergen, Norway; [Heinze, C.; Tjiputra, J.] Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Bergen, Norway; [Heinze, C.; Tjiputra, J.] Uni Res, Uni Klima, N-5007 Bergen, Norway; [Oschlies, A.] Helmholtz Ctr Ocean Res Kiel GEOMAR, D-24105 Kiel, Germany; [Schneider, B.] Univ Kiel, Inst Geosci, D-24098 Kiel, Germany; [Segschneider, J.] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany

Reprint Adress

Cocco, V (reprint author), Univ Bern, Inst Phys, Sidlerstr 5, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.

Country(ies)
  • France
  • Germany
  • Norway
  • Switzerland
  • United States
CNRS - Adress(es)
  • Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement (LSCE), UMR8212
Accession Number
WOS:000317010600040
uid:/18VWRDCD
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